I understand that we, in Pakistan, have not felt the sheer jolts of global financial crisis yet, primarily because of the existing credit controls applied by the financial institutions and regulatory compliance of prudential regulations introduced by the SBP (State Bank of Pakistan). But, just to think, we already have the major proportion of the population living below the poverty line. Even the middle salaried class segment does not have easy access to money from the banks. Established businesses are already taking up their margins and profits. New small businesses are being setup through private capital. And above all, mortgages are not pegged to banking portfolios.
In USA, it all started from mortgages. Ron Paul is of the view that FED is the culprit and Dollar Reserve System introduced in 1971 has effectively failed. Many are predicting the collapse of United States just like the mighty USSR. The question though, for us is that when and how it will show its ugly face in Pakistan? And what will be the result?
Today, Pakistan stands in the middle of the worst political crisis ever in the history of the country since 1971. As of this writing, lawyers are rallying for “Long March” towards Islamabad from Baluchistan and Sindh provinces. Sharif brothers are awaiting their arrival in Lahore and re-evaluating their strategy for long march. Government machinery is heavily involved in capturing opposition leaders. Many of the blunt and vocal political activists have gone underground to save themselves from being arrested.
Before we can answer when the global financial crisis will be visible in Pakistan, and what will be the results? we have to see what has already gone wrong in the country.
An inevitable and unusual clash between opposition and the government is expected on the roads of the country. Which will invite increased security threat to the common people and their properties. In some swere cases, injuries and deaths will rise amid clashes between activists and law enforcement agencies. Which, in turn, will fuel the crisis. Businesses in those areas will remain closed for indefinite period.
Government is trying to stop the “Long March” by force and by using extra police and military/para-military units in the country. Secret agencies, which were once used to protect Pakistan from foreign threats, are now being used for private surveillance and to observe political enemies. Which offguards the country to some extent, from external threats. We must not forget the threat to the country from insurgent movements in FATA and Baluchistan. Different media reports have confirmed the heavy involvement of Indian RAW in those movements. Suspicions have already been raised on recent attacks on Sri Lankan team in Lahore. American drones are already flying in our air space. While Mr. Altaf Hussain of MQM occasionally raising the slogans of “Sindh Motherland”, Punjab must not be used as the battleground this time. A weak federal government cannot sustain the pressures of such many nuisances in the country.
An economically weak and pressurized USA is trying to find a new war to divert the focus of its people. A weak federal Pakistani government will give an impression of unguarded Pakistani nuclear weapons ready to fall in the hands of Taliban, motivating the zionist driven USA to hop around it like jack rabbits, backed ofcourse by India and Israel. Which, in turn, will break the country, as desired by its enemies.
While political destabilization in the country is quite visible, economic downturn in US and Europe will show its ugly face in the country very soon. Decrease in imports to those countries will decrease our foreign reserves. An already unfavorable balance of payments will be more visible. As KIBOR (Karachi Interbank Offer Rate) sets LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) as its benchmark. SBP will force to increase controls and flow of money in the economy. Which will prove fatal for manufacturing industry accompanied by already anticipated shortage of power. Manufacturing will hit all time lows, cutting down jobs and business associated with it, and in turn, will cause the country to be dependent upon agriculture sector solely. Which also, depends upon manufacturing to flourish. Cattle and crops will not be able to take economy on their shoulders alone. Lack of money in developed economies will cut the amount of aid, funding and loaning that we are getting, shrinking development projects, effecting NGOs, and other miscellaneous activities, forcing the unrest in the country and again, a weak federal government.
I assume that conscious of a man cannot encourage him to run after his rule of the land, pride on his treasure, greed for more and forget about the rights of his fellow human beings, forever. Even Pharaoh accepted his defeat when the waves surrounded him from both sides while Moses was crossing the river . But it was too late then.
Perhaps, it is the hardest times of all on nations when the men leading and ruling on them are unjust, unfaithful and untrustworthy. But, these are those times when nations emerge as united and rise above all. A great responsibility lies with the leaders in Pakistani government to fulfill the promises they made with the nation and make justice to the cause for which people voted for them and allowed them to sit in the big sacred halls of the democratic system. Results are going to be catastrophic otherwise.
They promised to restore the judges, eliminate 17th amendment in the constitution, abolish 58-2-B – a present from a dictator. Failing to do so will expose them to a double impact: A global crisis and a country internally destabilized. That, any nation loving pakistani does not want to see and face ever.
Benazir Bhutto once said: “It’s true that General Musharraf opposes my return, seeing me as a symbol of democracy in the country. He is comfortable with dictatorship. I hope better sense prevails.”
I hope that the better sense prevails…
